2024-12-04 14:46 update: 2024-12-04, 14:59
Photo: PAP/Paweł Supernak
Poland's GDP is expected to rise by 3.4 percent in 2025, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) wrote in its latest Economic Outlook report on Wednesday.
"Private consumption should grow, supported by real wage growth and gradually decreasing interest rates," the authors wrote. "After a slowdown in investment growth this year, the disbursement of EU funds will boost investment growth in 2025. GDP is projected to grow by 3.4% next year and 3% in 2026."
According to OECD economists, Headline inflation is expected to gradually return to target, but the upcoming withdrawal of energy support measures could slow this decline. It is projected to average around 5 percent in 2025 and decrease to 3.9 percent in 2026.
"Significant spare capacity should reduce labour shortages, moderate wage growth and lead to a decrease in core inflation," the report stated.
Among the risks to Poland's economy, the study mentioned continued high wage growth, an escalation of the war in Ukraine, and issues related to faster-than-expected absorption of EU funds.
OECD projected the budget deficit to worsen to 5.8 percent of GDP by the end of 2024 and remain stable in 2025. The report assumed the policy rates to be lowered towards 4 percent by the end of 2026.
"Given the uncertainty around the pace of disinflation, monetary policy should remain restrictive, and ease as inflation durably returns to target (2.5 percent - PAP)," the authors of the study wrote. (PAP)
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